Is it wise to take Corbyn's words at face value - it's not as simple as you might think

Jeremy Corbyn's Das Spiegel interview and his single sentence answer on Brexit has caused understandable dismay in the remain community. This is an appeal to breathe, slow down and think more deeply.

What follows may sound like hanging onto hope by a thread - but is it?

Corbyn is the leader of the Labour Party. He's bound by collective responsibility and the position of the Shadow Cabinet is that Labour respects the referendum result. As party leader has to support that position. If his answer to Das Spiegel's question had been "until the ECJ rules on the reversibility of article 50, no one can stop Brexit" he could have avoided a lot of flack,  but he's an inexperienced leader, and navigating these kind of situations is hard even for the very best.

Perhaps before we go too far with the wailing and gnashing of teeth it could be helpful to reflect a little on the underlying political realities. Just for a few minutes, forget about what Corbyn is saying and think about what he can do, if he manages to win power.

The political reality Prime Minister Corbyn would face is that the overwhelming majority of Labour MP's are pro remain. While Tory remainer MPs would never back Corbyn to bring down May in opposition, they wouldn't hesitate to find common cause with Labour rebels, the SNP and Lib dems if he was in power. Corbyn must know this and that it would be almost impossible for him to deliver brexit, even if he wanted too.

There's more. Corbyn's power base in the party depends on the membership, who are overwhelmingly pro- remain,  pro-Corbyn members especially so. His survival depends on retaining their support. It's why the people's vote motion was heard at conference. The leadership had no option, they knew if they had tried to suppress it Corbyn would be seriously weakened within the party.

You may well ask, "in that case why did he say we stop can't stop Brexit"? It seems like a fair question but we are dealing with complexity.

Is it good tactics to commit right now to a course of action that risks alienating a significant number of Labour voters? Don't be mislead by the "all leave communities are at least 50% remain" headlines. That says nothing about the voting intentions of Labour supporters - who were the main leave voters in Labour's northern stronghold seats. There's a genuine fear that not only could a remain position jeopardise a significant number of core seats but that a significant number of Labour supporters would be driven into the arms of the right. Why do that before the ECJ has even ruled?

I do understand why remainers are frustrated with Labour's position, I've been on the brink myself a few times - I have to keep reminding myself this is a multilayered, deeply political situation  that goes far beyond Brexit or crude vote winning policies.

If we are going to back off from the referendum it will be an act with far greater ramifications than Brexit. We can't afford to ignore the fact that Labour's working class support has a fairly direct view of democracy - and that the right are moving with a deeply anti-democracy agenda. It would be so easy to push people into saying "what's the point of democracy - look what happened to Brexit" - and the party that continues the ultra right xenophobic rhetoric will be the place they go. There's a real fear in Labour circles of boosting an ultra right cause and it's not groundless - you only have to look how that kind of mentality has been manipulated by Trump in the USA to understand the risks

Personally I've always felt that, if we are going to step back from the brink, people need to peer over the edge to justify re-running the referendum. I suspect a lot of politicians feel the same way. The public need to see for themselves just how bad it really is. I think there is a genuine change of mood but it's not enough - yet. At the moment Corbyn is keeping his powder dry. Until we know how the ECJ is going to rule on stopping article 50 it's far better for Labour to stick to the agreed position, the closer we get to the brink the less likely there will be a backlash if it changes - and if the court rules Brexit is irreversible, Labour still need to beat the Tories.

We seem to have a deep lack of understanding of how elections work in this country. Social media "Blame Corbyn threads" are a simplistic response to a complex and delicate situation, and they are just as likely to make Brexit a reality as the man himself. So many remainers are now insisting the only way of stopping Brexit is to vote lib dem - I'm old enough to have seen the tories win many general elections because the anti tory vote has been split.

I've a strong hunch Jeremy is playing grown up politics and he's playing them pretty well.  We remainers should be wary of jumping on the anti-Corbyn Bandwagon. We have to appreciate this is not a simple situation, and that in the end Labour is the only party that can beat the tories. If we do - Brexit is a dead duck - as long as the ECJ plays ball.

an open Letter to Jeremy Corbyn

Dear Jeremy,

I'm not “anti-Corbyn”. Far from it, I voted for you twice, and have been vocal in your defence. Your election as party leader has provided a counter narrative to the new right agenda that's been desperately needed for 30 years, but loving your politics doesn't mean I agree with everything you do – and on Brexit you have pushed me over the edge.

I defended our policies of triangulation and constructive ambiguity on Remain social media sites in blogs and debate. I understand the delicacy of Labour’s electoral position in some seats but I can no longer defend Labour's position, which has moved from “keeping options open” to active support for Brexit.

This is a suicidal path.

As a party our membership are at least 70% remain. Where's the mandate for you to take this route? What are the rational arguments for a complete reversal of our democratically agreed position? It's absolutely clear that Brexit is going to be an economic disaster. It's said you are in favour because “if we remain in Europe re-nationalisation policies can't be implemented”. I don't know if that is true, but it would be a minor problem compared to the scale of economic harm Brexit will cause. It's bad enough now. If Brexit happens, we will see an economic meltdown that will be a far greater barrier to your policies than any constraints imposed by the EU.

You say “we must respect democracy”. I agree, we must, but the outcome of the referendum was one one of the most corrupt votes in my lifetime.

We know the leave campaign broke rules wholesale - Cambridge Analytica, cheating on spending rules, a campaign was based on “lies on an industrial scale”. Add to this the demographic with the most to lose, Britons living in Europe and Europeans living in the UK, having no vote and a media almost entirely owned by reactionary vermin who have fanned the fires of racism, intolerance and ignorance for decades. The corruption of the Brexit campaign wasn't a one-off. These techniques will be used again and again by the right - and they will be used against our party. Supporting Brexit isn’t defending democracy - it’s defending a hideously corrupt set of tactics devised by the likes of Steve Bannon and the US new right.

While I'm on the subject of reactionary vermin – how can you support a far right agenda? How can you sit on the same side as Gove, Fox, Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage and company? How can you of all people embrace a policy they passionately advocate? Can't you see that Brexit is far more than a bit of reactionary nationalism. Brexit and Donald Trump are two sides of the same coin. Study the narrative of the US new right and you'll quickly see they detest Europe – it's “too socialist” for them. The new right in the UK have been in close contact with the new right in the USA for years. That's what Liam Fox's Atlantic Bridge was all about. The forces behind Brexit and Donald Trump are two sides of the same coin.

This is a political movement that passionately believes all tax is theft, that the State should play almost no role in society and is wedded to the crazed social darwinist philosophy of Ayn Rand. We already hear Tory bigwigs talking about “deregulating the Labour Market” - code for trashing everything the labour movement has fought for over the last 120 years. A vision for a new Britain in the eyes of the Tory monsters includes the windfall of disaster capitalism, fracking, culling of environmental standards, and the sale of the NHS to the private health industry.

Terrible as all these things are, they are not the worst aspect of your current position on Brexit. You offered hope to the millions who felt no one in politics represented their position. The young flocked too you. Last year at Glastonbury the were chanting “oh oh Jeremy Corbyn” - this year at the anti Brexit rally they were chanting “where's Jeremy Corbyn”. Most of the younger demographic, the ones who won Canterbury in 2017 voted “holding their noses” because of Brexit.

They won't do that again, the Lewisham by election was a warning. Your current position is dividing the progressive vote and could well let the worst and most evil Tory government in my lifetime carry on with their program of corrupting and destroying everything that is decent in the UK.